SpaceX has spent years operating in a world of private funding rounds, long-term bets, and founder-driven narratives. This week, it enters a vastly different arena.
The company is set to release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company following its June IPO, and Wall Street is watching closely. Not just because of the raw numbers, but because of the extraordinary divide between believers and skeptics.
At roughly $120 per share, SpaceX is trading well below its post-IPO highs near $225. Yet the company remains one of the most closely watched stocks in the market, sitting at the intersection of space exploration, telecommunications, artificial intelligence, and defense technology.
What makes this earnings report especially fascinating is the scale of the bets being placed against it. According to market commentary circulating on X, approximately 95% of shares available for lending have been borrowed by short sellers, with short interest reportedly reaching 34% of the public float. In dollar terms, that's an estimated $24.6 billion wager that the stock will move lower—an unusually large bearish position for a company still in the earliest days of public trading.
The Unlock That Changes Everything
If earnings weren't enough, another major catalyst arrives almost immediately afterward. Around 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors are scheduled to become eligible for trading. That figure is significantly larger than the 638.9 million shares issued during the IPO itself.
The result is a dramatic increase in available supply. Before the unlock, only a small fraction of SpaceX's total shares actively traded on public markets. Afterward, the company's free float is expected to more than double, radically altering the stock's trading dynamics.
What Investors Want to Hear
While the headlines focus heavily on short sellers and lockups, the long-term story remains centered on execution across three key pillars:
1. Starlink Growth: Starlink has evolved from an ambitious side project into one of SpaceX's most crucial commercial engines. Investors will want concrete updates on subscriber growth, revenue expansion, enterprise adoption, and profitability.
2. Starship Progress: The future valuation of SpaceX still depends heavily on Starship. Every update on testing, regulatory approvals, and launch schedules will be heavily scrutinized.
3. AI and Data Opportunities: An emerging area of interest is the intersection between Starlink's global constellation and the rapidly growing demand for AI connectivity and compute capacity.