The Economist examines Gartners techno-hype chart.
The annual “hype cycle” chart from Gartner, a market research firm, tries to depict the degree to which certain technologies are exaggerated. Smart robots? Don’t hold your breath. Big data? Not yet. In the firm’s view, innovation advances in stages: from exuberance to pessimism to adoption. Not every technology progresses at the same speed, so Gartner assigns each an estimated time until the end of its ride.
Most of the Technologies listed in Gartner’s chart seem well placed. However, Cloud Computing seems off, especially since much of the ‘computing’ most consumers and even business users do is over the Internet and in the cloud in one sense or another. For example, even a Google search is a cloud computing task. You ask a question and Google’s vast technical infrastructure computes and delivers an answer.
Unless you are actively working to develop the technologies in the “Innovation Trigger” section of the chart, it is probably safe to ignore most news articles about how ‘X’ technology is going to change the world. However, the toys that emerge from the technologies in this section are fun to play with. Technological innovations have to prove themselves by passing through the “Trough of disillusionment” to prove that they are actually useful.