A map of fertility no longer divides neatly into a low-fertility rich world and a high-fertility poor world. The broad relationship with development remains, but the boundary has moved and fractured.
Most of Europe, East Asia, and the Americas is below replacement. Much of South and Southeast Asia has crossed the same line or is close to it. The highest fertility is now concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and a smaller group of countries elsewhere. Even there, the general direction is downward.
National averages conceal much of the story. Fertility can differ between cities and rural districts, or between religious and economic groups. A country near replacement may contain a capital city with very low fertility and provinces where families remain larger. The national number describes the combined result, not a uniform culture.
The transition is spreading and compressing
Europe’s decline unfolded over a long period. Later transitions have been much faster. Public health, contraception, and new expectations can spread without each country retracing the same economic history. Latin America moved from high fertility to below replacement within a few generations. Several Asian countries moved faster still.
This compression creates a different challenge from the one older countries faced. A society can begin aging before it has built mature pension and health systems. The phrase “getting old before getting rich” is imperfect, but it names a real tension: the institutions that support a long old age take time and resources to build.
The map also depends on the measure and year chosen. A period TFR can be depressed by delayed births; borders can obscure migration; survey estimates may differ from registration data. Small populations can move sharply from year to year. For this reason, the regional sketches that follow are orientations rather than rankings.
Their common feature is more important than any single decimal. Low fertility is no longer an exception confined to a few wealthy societies. It is a widespread stage of the demographic transition, reached through different histories and producing different population outcomes. Europe arrived early and East Asia moved furthest. Much of the developing world is changing faster than its older image suggests.
Citations
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results.
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology Report.